Caris Life Sciences, Inc. [CAI] — Catalyst Calendar
Phase Space Research · investment-memo v1.4.2 · Task 6 · 2026-07-28 · spot $15.59
Status: WATCHLIST, direction-if-converted LONG, binding gate Gate 4 (Expected Return). Conversion at $13.13 (price route) or on the Q2-2026 evidence route.
The one that matters: Q2-2026 earnings, ~6–12 August 2026
Everything in this memo resolves, or fails to resolve, in under two weeks. Caris reported Q1-2026 on 2026-05-07 and Q2-2025 on 2025-08-12, so the Q2-2026 print lands in the first half of August.
Three checkable numbers, all reconstructible even though the company retired the ASP disclosure table:
| # | Test | How to compute it | Bull threshold | Bear threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blended clinical ASP | Molecular profiling revenue ÷ clinical therapy-selection case volume (both still disclosed in the release narrative). Method validated exactly on Q3-2025: 50,763 × $4,089 = $207.57m vs $207.587m reported. | ≥ $4,200 | < $3,900 |
| 2 | Prior-period revenue true-up | 10-Q revenue note, the sentence beginning "the Company recorded $X of adjustments to revenue related to services delivered in prior periods" | ≤ $6m | ≥ $12m |
| 3 | Clinical case volume | Stated in the release highlights | ≥ 56,000 (management's own claimed Feb/Mar exit run-rate) | < 54,000 |
Reference points: Q1-2026 was ASP $3,992 · true-up $10.3m · volume 52,800. Q4-2025 was ASP $5,353 · true-up ~$10.2m · volume 52,700.
Decision rule. All three bull thresholds → T2 fires, convert to LONG at 1.0% of book. Any bear threshold → cut the Base case, raise p_bear above 35%, and the price conversion level falls below $13.13. Mixed → remain Watchlist, re-underwrite the ASP path.
Full dated calendar
| Date | Event | Upgrade threshold | Downgrade threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~6–12 Aug 2026 | Q2-2026 earnings + 10-Q | ASP ≥ $4,200 AND true-up ≤ $6m AND volume ≥ 56,000 | ASP < $3,900, or true-up ≥ $12m, or volume < 54,000 |
| Aug 2026 | Q2 10-Q revenue note | True-up run-rate declining sequentially | Third consecutive quarter ≥ $10m |
| Q3 2026 | First Caris Detect commercial disclosure | Any disclosed test volume, or a payer coverage decision | No volume disclosed → continue to value Detect at zero |
| Q3 2026 | Everlywell channel data | Evidence of repeat ordering | Consumer price cut = weak demand |
| ~Nov 2026 | Q3-2026 earnings | FY2026 guidance raised above $1.02bn | FY2026 guidance cut below $1.00bn |
| Q4 2026 | CY2027 CLFS / MolDX rate setting | Rates held or raised on the primary WES/WTS codes | Any rate reduction — this is the single largest exogenous risk |
| ~Feb 2027 | FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance | FY2027 revenue guided ≥ $1.25bn | FY2027 guided < $1.15bn |
| ~Mar 2027 | FY2026 10-K | ASP disclosure reinstated; Payer 1 concentration falling | Payer 1 concentration > 40%; true-up again > $30m |
| Ongoing | Form 4 filings | Further open-market (code P) insider buying | Any discretionary, non-10b5-1 code-S selling |
| Ongoing | $100m buyback (auth. 2026-06-08) | Meaningful execution at these levels | Authorisation lapses unused |
| Ongoing | Price | — | ≤ $13.13 fires T1 → convert to LONG |
Monitoring items that resolve without an earnings call
Per references/unpublished-scoping.md — items checkable from free, independent corpora on a fixed cadence.
| ID | Item | Cadence | Baseline (2026-07-28) | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-U1 | New Caris registrations on ClinicalTrials.gov | monthly | NCT07680868 (ChromoSeq, RECRUITING, registered 2026-07); NCT01499394 (Biorepository — conditions include Early Detection of Cancer and Minimal Residual Disease) | Any Caris Detect or MRD interventional registration → re-scope the Bull case |
| C-U2 | MolDX / CMS coverage for Caris Detect | monthly | NONE. Launched 2026-07-01 as an LDT, consumer cash-pay via Everlywell | Any coverage decision → immediate re-underwrite; this is the largest single upside lever |
| C-U3 | PubMed volume, "Caris Life Sciences" | semi-annual | 128 (2022) · 143 (2023) · 201 (2024) · 281 (2025) · 207 (2026 partial, annualising ~355) | Downgrade if full-year 2026 < 281 — that would break the independent adoption evidence |
| C-U4 | PubMed volume, "multi-cancer early detection" | semi-annual | 28 · 32 · 62 · 59 · 47 (2026 partial) — field interest plateaued after 2024 | A return above 62 would raise the credibility of the MCED opportunity |
| C-U5 | Form 4 open-market purchases | weekly | Last: Jon Halbert, 68,000 shares @ $14.56, 2026-07-13, not under a 10b5-1 plan. Prior: Vacirca 31,050 @ $16.15, 2026-05-12 | Further clustered buying strengthens Gate 1; any code-S sale is an invalidation trigger |
| C-U6 | Everlywell Caris Detect consumer pricing page | monthly | Live since 2026-07-01 | A price cut signals weak cash-pay demand |
| C-U7 | Short interest | bi-monthly (FINRA) | 6.84m shares = 4.7% of float — not crowded | A move above 12% of float changes the implementation picture |
What would make this a position
T1 — price. A close at or below $13.13 with fundamentals intact (case volume still +12% y/y or better, blended ASP not falling year on year). At that level expected return is +25% against the 4.7% hurdle — a 20.3pp margin that survives the imprecision in the probability weights, unlike the 0.6pp margin at $15.59. Barrier-touch probability ≈ 72% over twelve months at 62.7% realised volatility, after a haircut for the positive drift implied by the Street's $23–$32 targets.
T2 — evidence. The Q2-2026 triple test above. Probability ≈ 22%.
P(T1 or T2) ≈ 78% over twelve months — comfortably above the ~10% floor below which a Watchlist entry is just a no-position in costume.
Vehicle on conversion: equity only. CAI's listed options carry a median near-the-money bid-ask spread of 85% of mid with near-zero open interest and put-call parity violations up to $0.95. No defined-risk structure is executable at any strike or expiry. This constraint should be re-tested at conversion, not assumed permanent.
Size on conversion: 1.0% of book, ceiling 1.5% (LOW conviction × HIGH volatility, 62.7% realised). Maximum book loss at that size with a $10.50 invalidation is −0.33%, inside the −2.0% per-position limit.
Handoff: ongoing maintenance of this calendar belongs to equity-research:catalyst-calendar and
equity-research:thesis-tracker. The next scheduled action is the Q2-2026 print in the first half of August
2026 — set a review for 2026-08-13 at the latest.